Research brief · Executive summary
Five of the largest studies of U.S. churches, read side by side. Together they cover more than 400,000 congregations and 132,000 Americans and point to a church that is steadier than the decline story suggests, and more concentrated than most leaders realize.
The bottom line
For the first time in a generation, more U.S. congregations are stable or growing than shrinking. But most of that growth is believers changing seats, not new disciples taking them.
01 · The rebound
Faith Communities Today has tracked the median congregation since 2000. Attendance roughly halved over two decades, collapsed to 45 during COVID, and then did something it had never done in the series: it went up.
The researchers checked the number twice before publishing it. Even so, the 2025 median is about half of where it stood in 2000. The authors call it "a pause or partial reversal," not a turnaround.
Source: Hartford Institute for Religion Research, "Signs of Rebound Amid Uneven Recovery" (April 2026), FACT/EPIC survey of 7,453 congregations, Sept to Dec 2025. Dashed line connects survey points only.
02 · Uneven recovery
The gains are real, but they are not shared. Growth clusters in evangelical and mid-sized to large congregations. Mainline churches and the smallest congregations absorbed the losses.
In 2025, 29% of congregations grew by a quarter or more, while 27% shrank by a quarter or more. The middle is thinning.
Source: FACT/EPIC 2025, as reported by Lifeway Research. 2025 row sums to 101% due to rounding.
Churches over 250 were the most likely to grow. Among churches of 50 or fewer, 40% lost a quarter or more of their attendance.
Source: FACT/EPIC 2025 via Lifeway Research and Faith & Leadership (Duke).
03 · Consolidation
One in eight congregations now holds nearly four in five worshipers. That share has climbed from 64% in 2015 to 70% in 2020 to 78% in 2025.
And the newcomers? Most are transfers. Only 8 in 100 new attendees had never been part of a congregation. The researchers' word for much of the growth is "redistribution."
The good news inside the bad: 22% of newcomers are people coming back after a long absence. The previously churched are returning.
Source: FACT/EPIC 2025.
Source: FACT/EPIC 2025 via Lifeway Research. Sums to 99 due to rounding.
04 · Who is coming back
The returners are not who most leaders expect. In 2019, Gen Z and Millennials were the least frequent churchgoers in America. Today they are the most frequent. And for the first time in 25 years of Barna tracking, men attend more regularly than women, with the widest gap among younger adults.
Married fathers lead every group: 41% attend weekly, against 30% of married mothers, 24% of single mothers and 21% of single fathers.
Source: Barna Group and Gloo, State of the Church 2025 (Oct 7, 2025). 132,020 interviews over 25 years, through July 2025.
Barna cautions that more young adults in the pews has not yet meant more devoted disciples. The opening is real; the pathway is the work.
Sources: Barna, "Young Adults Lead a Resurgence in Church Attendance" (Sept 2025); "Are Young Adults Engaging More at Church?" (Mar 9, 2026), 507 Protestant senior pastors.
05 · Signs of vitality
Across 25 years of Faith Communities Today data, one trait shows up beside growth again and again: a clear sense of mission. In 2020, 92% of congregations that called themselves "spiritually vital and alive" also said they had a clear mission and purpose.
Clarity spiked in the first crisis year, sagged in 2023, and has recovered. The same surge, dip and rebound appears in attendance, giving, volunteering and clergy well-being.
Source: FACT/EPIC surveys, 2020 to 2025.
Source: FACT/EPIC 2025 via FaVS News. Expenses rose from $108K to $199K, driven largely by insurance.
06 · Inside the largest Protestant denomination
The Southern Baptist Annual Church Profile is the largest yearly census of any U.S. Protestant body. Its 2025 numbers show the same split as the national data: participation is rising while the institution keeps contracting.
Baptisms have passed 2017 levels in the first five-year run of increases in 75 years. Membership has fallen 19 straight years. Attendance is still almost 800,000 below 2019, though 10% fewer churches report than in 2019. Georgia churches baptized 26,049 people, second only to Florida.
Source: Lifeway Research, 2025 SBC Annual Church Profile (May 5, 2026).
07 · The whole map
The U.S. Religion Census counts every congregation it can find, county by county, once a decade. Its 2020 count found 356,642 congregations and 161.2 million adherents, just under half the population. Set congregations against people and the shape of American religion changes.
Catholic parishes are 5% of congregations but hold 38% of adherents. Conservative Protestants run more than half of all congregations. Independent nondenominational churches (44,319 congregations, about 21 million adherents) are now the largest Protestant group.
Source: 2020 U.S. Religion Census (ASARB, 2023), Table 1. Shares computed from reported totals. Next census: 2030. This is the same dataset behind our Know Your Context tool.
For church leaders
When 69% of newcomers are transfers, a fuller room can hide an empty mission field. Track how many people come to faith, not only how many come to church.
Clarity of mission rises and falls with vitality in every wave of the data. Name why your church exists, in a sentence your members can repeat.
Small churches cannot copy the programs of large ones. They can partner, share space and staff, and know their neighbors better than anyone else.
Facilities now take 40 cents of every dollar, up from 31. Steward buildings for mission, or they will quietly become the mission.
One newcomer in five is someone coming back after years away. Build an on-ramp for the dechurched, with patience for their questions.
Sources and method
Survey figures describe congregations as reported by their leaders and are correlations, not causes. Percentages may not sum to 100 because of rounding.